Bankroll Building and Bourbon: Week 3

Mark was the big winner in week 3 of our challenge and is within striking distance now with a budget closer to what he likes to work with. Caleb is close to his starting bankroll after a swing and miss in the pick 4, and Josh and Chase are back to the beginning with busts.

Current bourbon status: $30 initial loser payout + $15 bonus buy-ins =

Michter’s Small Batch

Mark: $220.80, +$129.80 this week

I came into today with $91 and in second place behind Caleb. I wanted to keep the same mentality of picking sequences I was comfortable with and linking together DD/P3 plays while also keeping an eye out for value in the win pools.

When capping the sequence, I just hated the 6th race and felt it was cheap with no real standouts, so I did some A/B style DD’s in the races before and after. I connected with a nice price in the 4th with the 12 horse who I thought could get loose and might be primed with a high percentage jock when riding for the respective trainer getting aboard. The horse was rated but made a strong move at the top of the stretch and I was able to go A/A in my DD for $4 when the favorite won the next. That wager returned $209.20 which was quite solid all things considered.

I played a $5 Win/Show wager on two spot prices in the 6th and neither fired. I then played another A/B DD in the final two legs which payed back $44.60 for a $56 investment and left me solidly in the lead with $220.80.

So far none of my spot price plays have panned out which is fine because these have all been horses in the greater than 10-1 range so it will be a low percentage type angle. I’m very happy with my DD’s so far although my structure in the final two legs should have been more leverage as I overly faded a favorite. Plan going forward is more of the same, keeping it horizontal and leveraging spot plays when they arise.

Caleb: $53, -$97 this week

I went into week 3 of our contest in the lead with a little over $150 to work with. Now I don’t want to make excuses, but with the holidays and traveling and family visiting all going on it was incredibly challenging to carve out time for handicapping. I think the results of my night back up that sentiment, as I did not cash a single bet and lost almost $100 of my $150 bankroll.

When going through the card, I didn’t really find any particular horse I wanted to build a ticket around or try to key in vertical plays. I am a horizontal player in over 90% of my normal action, and I figured that since I built up a bit of a cushion that now would be a good time to fire a shot at the late pick 4. Race 6 was where I really did not have a strong opinion so I tried to spread and hope to survive, but I was beat when the 4 horse pulled the upset at odds of 15-1. Cheap N2L races are always a challenge for me, but the 4 horse was one whom I just overlooked a bit. I noticed the horse was 1 for 21 lifetime and losing against Indiana bred horses so I dismissed her too quickly. With more time and attention to detail I may have noticed that while she was a dismal 0/17 on dirt, she owns a win and a place in her 4 starts on turf. Knowing that turf form generally translates better to synthetic than dirt, one could have made the case for this horse at generous odds.

When the pick 4 was dead in leg 2, I got greedy chasing losses and playing for action and fired a few daily doubles despite once again not having a strong opinion in those races. Those also all missed, so I ended the day at $97 dollar loss, bringing my total bankroll down to nearly where I started, at $53. Lessons learned today was don’t bet big just because you’re up if you haven’t done the homework to give yourself confidence in your picks, and don’t use a pick 4 to try and luck your way through a sequence of races where you don’t have a key horse to race to build around.

Josh: BUST! AGAIN! -$50 this week, $10 into the bourbon budget so far.

As you can see by my pained expression in the YouTube thumbnail, I had a horrific day. I tried to press some strong opinions with vertical bets and came up way short. I think going forward, I’m going to need to play it safer with just straight Win and DD bets to build some bankroll up. It’s definitely disheartening to not cash a single bet in a day, but when you make higher risk bets such as Tris and Exactas along with win bets on longshots, you’re going to get burned more times then not. I tried to play catch up and should have simply tried to build before shooting the moon.

Chase: $.01 BUST! -$35.80 on the week, $5 into the bourbon budget.

I knew going into the day that Caleb and Mark had built a substantial lead due to their DD and exacta hits in previous sessions. Instead of being patient and being selective…..I flailed. Wildy. As is always the case, a lack of an edge and a lack of patience lead to a tap out and rebuy for next time.

Next outing I’ll probably play more selectively in terms of DD’s, win/place bets,. Once I can get breathing room I’ll stretch into pick 3’s and more exotic wagers.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s