Hey everyone! We try and get these recaps out as quickly as possible, but we had a big dose of life this week. We’ll be more diligent moving forward. That being said, we have a new leader in the clubhouse! Caleb was the big winner last week and is at $167.40.The Bourbon fund has another $10 in it, so we move from Michters Small Batch to….
Caleb: $167.40, +$114.40
After getting too ambitious last week trying to target a spready pick 4 in the midst of holiday madness, I reverted to what was working for me the first few weeks of the contest by focusing on smaller bets with higher confidence. I didn’t love anything in the 4th or the 8th race, so the pick 4 and any early action was out. I decided to key my day around a longshot horse I found in race 6, the #7 horse Jennysregalman. This horse was 20-1 on the morning line, but I thought he had a legit shot to win. I figured the 4 and the 8 horses would both duel for the lead and tire out, and the 7 might get a good stalking trip off the pace without coming from too far out of it. Truth be told, I thought the 9 would be the likeliest winner, but the 9 was bet down to 4/5 and didn’t provide me with the value I needed. I keyed a DD using the promising Wesley Ward first time starter with my 7 horse and hit for a whopping $139 return for $2 investment. In hindsight, I wish I pressed that opinion harder, but after taking a big loss the week before I was hesitant to get too aggressive. I played a few small bets in the 7th race that missed, but I still ended over $100 up from where I started, putting me back in the lead at $167.
Mark: $133.00, -$87.80 this week
My plan coming into this week was much as previous weeks, smaller horizontal wagers and spot plays. After capping the sequence, I didn’t find a single horse that I could key tickets around but felt that a couple of P3’s which overlapped would make a lot of sense. I planned P3’s that would cover races 4-6 & 6-8 which of course makes the 6th race doubly critical and that was the race I missed. I hastily threw together a late DD which connected but only showed a tiny profit. Had the 2nd place horse who lost the 6th by a head instead won, I would have broken the 1k line and ended the contest. Instead, I was down just under $88 on the night finishing with $133 in my account. Congrats to Caleb for having the winner of the 6th and building some nice plays around him; I plan on reclaiming my lead next week.
Josh: $0 again, why did I come up with this? $15 total in the bourbon fund.
This exercise has actually given me a little clarity. I’ve noticed that I’m definitely not playing my style on these streams after going back and reviewing my plays. I’ve focused a bit on P3 and DD plays, and while I’ve had success with DD plays in the past, I’m definitely not a P3 player. Sure, I’ll chase a P4 or P5 on big days with a small stab, but those are low percentage plays with a high return if I hit. Playing P3s like I have been are not it. This next week, I’m going to focus on EX, DD, and Win bets if I find value. This is my normal style of play and hopefully it will help me turn it around.
Chase: $0, $10 into the bourbon fund
Chase wasn’t able to get me his plays this week before I wrote this post, but I will say he was a bit unlucky last week as he KILLED races 1-3 at Turfway before throwing up a dud on stream. I think he gets it squared away this week!