Saratoga best bets for July 29th.

The last one of these I posted seemed to be a big hit and those who tagged along saw a nice solid 5x return so let’s see if we can get a repeat here. I really like this early P5 sequence but am putting this up before scratches and works so drop into Discord for a final structure.

Race 2 – In any MCL race I’m always looking for horses with logical excuses along with class droppers. Both #4 Belleza and #7 Cross Keys have these. Both see some class relief here with Belleza almost getting it done last out only to melt in the face of some serious early fractions. Cross Keys sees one of my favorite angles where a horse showed speed first out and faded, also gets a cutback here.

Race 3 – I want most of my money in here going through #9 Positive Skew who should get that just off the pace run style that worked so well the last two weeks on the turf. I also want a bit of #2 Super Cute who gets on what should be the proper surface in her third start for Clement. My only concern is that Rosario got off this one for the 9….. If you get anywhere near ML on the 9 its quite a lot of value on the win side.

Race 4 – This MSW is a lot tougher than it looks first pass as the #1 Ajhar and #1a Ashiham for Todd Pletcher and Shadwell Stable both look very strong. My only concern is that with both, I don’t see an excuse and I hate giving horses more chances if nothing is changing beyond the scenery. I really like both the #2 Hometown and #6 Vicarage who could both drift up a bit in price as I think the Pletcher duo takes a ton of money. I’ll use all three equally and hope to get around the Pletcher duo. I will also win bet the 6 if we see anything 4-1 or better.

Race 5 – Once again I’ll want most of my money flowing through #4 Classic Lady for the dangerous Clement/Rosario duo. She towers over these on figs and catches some class relief while also on paper getting a perfect pace setup. I’ve been chasing #1 War Canoe forever and feel she’s a must use although will be overbet on connections and I just don’t think she’s as good as the 4.

Race 6 – Both #5 American Power and #6 Thebigfundamental are getting a bunch of class relief and have both proved they love the surface. I want a little bit of #3 Pete’s Play Call and #7 Creative Style who both seem a little light figures wise but the pace setup in this race feels wonky so I want some more coverage.

Play structure assuming a $100 base, scale your personal risk accordingly. If you don’t have the budget to attack as below, I prefer playing the first three legs as a P3:

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s