Churchill Downs 5/30/20 Tournament Picks by Josh Rodriguez @CherryDrank

Hey everyone! I will be tossing my hat into the ring for The Daily Gallop’s weekly tournament and will try my best to write up each week’s card with my picks. The way it works is we pick 1 horse per race to play WPS with two alternates in case of scratches. I’ll do my best to give an accurate idea of what my picks will be, but just know I’ll be doing these the night before and may adjust a few things the next day. That being said, I’ll be using ‘tournament logic’ and will try and call out horses I like to bet with real money vs pure tournament plays.

R1: They started off the card with a nice easy play here for me. #4 Dancewiththedevil will be my tournament play. Showed speed last time out making their second career start with Santana aboard. The price is also right here for tournament play. My alternates will be the logicals here #3 Trapped N My Mind and #7 Our Secret Agent.

R2: The three shortest prices here all make sense. I’m going to play the #8 Mongolian Humor and hope her price floats up after she took a bad step last time out. #4 Lady Cleopatra will be my 2nd choice with #6 Seeds of Time my third. Replace the scratches with #2 Sun Dress and #3 Operatic as backups.

R3: The #4 Elle M’a Souri looks to be the horse to beat from a figures standpoint, but in a race devoid of speed, I’ll go with the #5 Messina at a slightly better price and see if pace figure projections are correct and get this horse on the lead and the easiest trip. My backup will be the #1 Bastet for no other reason than Rosario and looking for a price and if both scratch I’ll take the #4 Elle M’a Souri.

R4: I really like the #5 Creekmore here in a betting standpoint, however, cannot take it for contest sake here. I’ll be going with the #1 Its My Bag Baby on the cutback at a slightly better price… I hope.

R5: Not going to overthink this one and will go with the #4 Doneneedaname here. Dropping into the MC ranks and has a strong TFUS speed figure last time out. #7 Jerry’s Got Aces could also be a sneaky play at a higher price. Maybe I will overthink this… #4… for now…

R6: I like the #11 Tabled the most in this race and may be my strongest opinion on the entire card. This feels like a case where we will not get close to the ML odds on this horse, but as we have to put picks in advance, I’ll roll with it. #2 Letmeno and #10 Tiesto will be my backups, but I’m not in love with either of those.

R7: Speed Kills. #2 Break Even. I’ll take #8 Mia Mischief as my backup.

R8: This race has a few prices I like in the #8 Oceanic, #6 What A Country, and the #3 Mau Mau. I think my play will be the #8 Oceanic based on the pace advantage I think he will have, but I could see myself using any of these three horses pending scratches.

R9: I like the #6 Bingwa to wire the field here, however, the #3 Dance Rhythms, #5 I’llhandalthecash, and #11 Dixieincandyland all present better value. I’ll use the #5 I’llhandalthecash as my tournament play, but use all 4 in some way in real bets.

R10: #7 Fearless seems to have an advantage here based on the speed figures and should be up close enough to the pace to stay out of trouble however, he lost last time out to long shot Dunph as the short priced favorite. #10 Gun It will offer better value based on the ML and should have a similar trip to #7 Fearless albeit a little wider. Long price I like here would be #9 Full Of Run, but I think he may need a bit more pace to run into, so I’ll go with #10 Gun It.

R11: #1 Juliet Foxtrot seems to loom large here with a class and speed figure advantage, but I think the value lies in #8 Altea here with Rosario aboard. #4 She’sonthewarpath has won two in a row beating #8 Altea last time out and will be a long price, but I don’t see lightning striking twice here.

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