WELP. That’s three of us now who have busted and only Caleb remains unscathed. Add another $15 to the bourbon fund which brings us to…
Caleb: $79.70, -$87.70 last week, only person left with their original bankroll.
I was set up well entering this week coming off of a nice DD score from the previous stream. While I factor in a variety of different angles, one of the first and most important factors I use in handicapping is identifying the pace scenario. When I looked over tonight’s races, I found a number of horses who I really thought would have a significant pace advantage over the rest of the field. Field sizes today were a little smaller than typical, and I felt that I had pretty strong opinions on a handful of horses who were not the morning line favorites and might come at a price.
Being up a bit from last week, I decided to take a swing in Pick 3s and doubles where I didn’t spread very much but played them for heavier than usual base wager amounts. Unfortunately for me, the pace scenarios did not play out the way I envisioned them in nearly every single race I bet. Whether it was jockey tactics changing or horses who are just inconsistent in form, a lot of horses I had pegged as a potential lone speed ended up far off the pace, and horses who were routinely stalkers and closers somehow made the lead. It was a frustrating day from that aspect to be sure, especially when my top pick of the card Glennwood ran second in the Forego Stakes at odds of 10-1 but I didn’t have the exacta.
All things considered, I don’t have a ton of regrets about the way I played this sequence. I believed I had strong opinions, and I bet them accordingly. Sometimes you just swing and miss, but I’m still sitting comfortably around $80 and the only one who has yet to contribute to the bourbon fund.
Mark: $0, -$133.00 last week, adding a fiver to the bourbon fund
Given the format in this type of contest, where you’re trying to turn a small starting bankroll into a large one with limited races and contest days, you’re often forced to take chances that just don’t pay off. In capping this card, I liked all the races and wanted to stick with the idea that had been working all meet, outside drawn off the pace types with closing speed.
My first P3 started in the 4th and was live to a nice payout with a new P3 starting in the 6th so of course this is the race that I blow to a perfect ride by Rodney Prescott. I then tried to fire back a late DD to save face or knock myself out fully and accomplished the latter.
Take away here is that I liked my plays and had some bad luck which caused me not to connect. You take that away and learn from it with a fresh new $50 to do more stupid things with.
Josh: $0, -$50, again. woof.
I set out to play a strategy like I normally do. Win, Ex, DD. Keep it simple, look for value, and attack. Well, as I said on stream I was seeing the first few races really well so I ended up on the night at Turfway if we included the non-contest tracks, unfortunately, I missed every bet on stream. I’m going to stick with my strategy here and hope that some Sam Houston mixed in will maybe break up my cold streak on stream.
Chase: $0, it’s probably the painkillers.
Note from Josh: Just a word about Chase. He’s having a rough go of it as of late with some medical stuff. He’s not in any kind of life-threatening situation, however, he’s been in incredible pain the past few weeks and I hope you guys can all tweet at him at @OfOaklawn and wish him a speedy recovery!
See everyone this Friday at 7:30EST/6:30CST for Sam Houston and Turfway for Week 6!