Saratoga One a Days – 8/30

Mark holds a narrow lead into the last week of this cursed meet.

Mark @Two_Turns

Race 3 – #3 Rock On Layla: We’re expected to get almost an inch of rain overnight and into the early morning Wednesday so I’m assuming everything comes off the turf and am handicapping as such. With that being said, I expect a bunch of scratches out of this race if/when it’s taken off the turf and that the MTO’s will take the majority of the money and ignore this entry, so I’ll get some value. Rock On Layla screams dirt to me with More Than Ready on the top and out of a Bernardini dam on the bottom. Morley has a starter in here, but JJ decides to ride the Kimmel instead, this angle produced the best OTWL price I’ve had on the meet so far with Skyer’s Starship back on the 23rd. Horse has been training well across both surfaces the past couple of months for Kimmel who is a low percentage trainer but happens to be 35% over the last 2 years with his 2yr old’s.

Race 5 – #12 Winters Lion: I was gifted a 2nd pick from a late scratch on Travers Day and am going to use it here as I expect this turf race to come off and therefore present a value play. Winters Lion, who should draw in as an MTO, has only one win which came at OP last December when he wired a nice field on debut going 8.5f in the slop. After that score, they tried some black-type turf stakes which his pedigree doesn’t really agree with before moving him back to dirt with some class relief in the last two this spring at Belmont. The value in here comes as Gilmore, immediately to his outside will be very short and I just don’t like at all. He broke his maiden over the quirky LRC surface and ever since has seemed to lack a desire to pass horses and the last makes me think he’s completely off form. I’m hoping to get some value here by taking the known quantity over the off going vs a field that is very suspect.

Josh @CherryDrank

Race 8 – #6 Olga Isabel: With the weather being terrible once again, it was tough to find a play I really liked today. In race 8, the #8 Tizzy in the Sky looks to be formidable on Optix, but is coming off a 200+ day layoff and might need a race to really run to her full potential. I turned my focus to the #6 Olga Isabel for Brad Cox who is shipping in to Saratoga off a nice Allowance win at Ellis Park. Should be forwardly placed and may even grab the lead here depending on the tactics on the #8 Tizzy in the Sky. #6 Olga Isabel has had strong workouts leading to this race and great mud pedigree if it’s really sloppy out there.

Caleb @CalebWVU

Race 6 – Printrack: Should be speed of speed over a sloppy sealed track. Last race came back relatively fast and he’s improved in 3 consecutive starts. Low profile connections will be overlooked so price should be right.

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