Josh with another chalk winner, Caleb whiffed, and mark missed with 2 horses. Things are tightening up.

Caleb @CalebWVU

Race 4 – #5 Run Devil: I mainly want to play this race because I am aggressively against morning line favorite Suspended Campaign. This is an alarming drop in class for a horse who has competed at higher levels for most of his career. The one mile races at Saratoga from the Wilson chute have played strongly towards speed, with 45% of winners going gate to wire. Suspended Campaign is a one paced plodder who will be against the track profile. I am most interested in Run Devil in here. This mare failed to show up last time, but that was an awfully ambitious spot for a horse who probably just isn’t quite that talented at this stage of her career. That race also came at a time when everything from the Atras barn was running poorly. The barn appears to be waking up just a bit lately, getting their first winner last week and a few place horses. Run Devil does not need the lead but should contest the pace up front and could put in a strong showing in this unusually salty $12,500 claiming event.

Josh @CherryDrank

Race 4 – #4 Greatest Love: Caleb and I will go head to head here in Race 4. The #5 Run Devil, Caleb’s pick, is my 2nd choice here as I think this race will be won by someone near the front. The #4 Greatest Love ran 3rd by a mile last time out jumping up in class off the claim. If you cross off that big class jump, this horse is in great form and has been very popular in the claim box. Both TimeformUS and Optix have this horse close up on what looks to be a soft pace. The favorite, #1 Suspended Campaign, is way off form here and should be a play against. 

Mark @Two_Turns

Race 6 – #8 Hidden Class: With some weather rolling into the area later in the day, I’m hoping this 6th race stays on the turf for this ‘cute’ play. New sire Cataline Cruiser has been solid, with 20% FTS winners but none of them on turf. Joe Sharp on the other hand is an 11% FTS trainer, but looking back 5 years he is 22% at Saratoga with MSW FTS in turn sprints. I’ll admit that’s a cryptic stat that doesn’t have a huge sample size, but I like sneaky stats for smaller barns, especially when they’re legging up the world class jock talent of Louis Saez. The one local drill last Thursday means he’s on his toes and you’re going to get value with some of the more well-known connections drawing money.